I think my article is not perfect yet. So please feel free to comment. I am glad to exchange idea with others.
According to the TVI team, they said that they will post the Thai version as well after the English version. I am waiting for them to send the Thai version back to me so that I can review it before it is posted.
I am not so sure what the residual value is. Could you please shed some light for me? Thanks.
Businessman like Investor
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Surachai
Oops! I just realised the residual value in my article is the value left after 10 years. I did not use it for so long until I forget. So sorry for the confusion made.
The reason I did not consider the residual value is because I feel that to estimate the next 10 year earning is already difficult enough. So to assume that the company will run forever is not so safe for me because as you know the automobile industry is cyclical.
The reason I did not consider the residual value is because I feel that to estimate the next 10 year earning is already difficult enough. So to assume that the company will run forever is not so safe for me because as you know the automobile industry is cyclical.
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Surachai
I would like to write in Thai but my pc here does not have thai font. Sorry about that.
I agree with you that we actually need to vary the growth and see how sensitive it is on the intrinsic value. You can have two-step growth as well, say 10% for the first five year and 5% for the latter five year. In doing so you will have a feel of the market expectation on the future growth of the company.
For instance, certain company may need 20% earning growth in the next 10 years in order to justify its current price. I think very few companies achieve that.
I have an excel spreadsheet which can help you calculate the intrinsic value as shown in the article. If you are interested, please write to me at [email protected]
I agree with you that we actually need to vary the growth and see how sensitive it is on the intrinsic value. You can have two-step growth as well, say 10% for the first five year and 5% for the latter five year. In doing so you will have a feel of the market expectation on the future growth of the company.
For instance, certain company may need 20% earning growth in the next 10 years in order to justify its current price. I think very few companies achieve that.
I have an excel spreadsheet which can help you calculate the intrinsic value as shown in the article. If you are interested, please write to me at [email protected]
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Surachai
I am in Singapore krub, for nearly 4 years. But I will go back next week laew krub, for good. Somehow, I come here to study engineering and do engineering but my interest is in investment. I read Dr. Niwet's book in 1999 before I came here and I am very impressed with value investing. I know since then this is the method that I can stick to and would be able to make me fortune. While I am here, I start to reading books about value investing, follow Peter Lynch, Phil Fisher, John Neff and the one I admire most, Warren Buffett. Over here, there are hundreds of investing books which I think I couldn't find it in bookstores in Thailand. I think partly because we are not conversant with English. Well, I would encourage everybody to learn and use English. It's very important.
Anyway I hope that there would be a meeting one day in the future. So we can see and talk to each, this time, in real.
Anyway I hope that there would be a meeting one day in the future. So we can see and talk to each, this time, in real.
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Surachai
I have so many books to carry back that I think I can open a small library back in Thailand. If khun Montree is interested, maybe I can lend you some when I am there.
Another place that carries a lot of investment books is the SET library. It has latest financial journals and magazines as well such as Harvard Business Review. You may go and check if there is the book you are interested. It also opens on Saturday from 10am-3pm (if I am not wrong). It is located at the SET building beside National Queen Sirikit Conventional Center. Next year april, we can ride subway there.
Another place that carries a lot of investment books is the SET library. It has latest financial journals and magazines as well such as Harvard Business Review. You may go and check if there is the book you are interested. It also opens on Saturday from 10am-3pm (if I am not wrong). It is located at the SET building beside National Queen Sirikit Conventional Center. Next year april, we can ride subway there.
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Surachai